The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is the maximum percentage of your portfolio you can withdraw in your first year of retirement to cover living expenses, adjusting for inflation every year thereafter.

How we calculate it: We run a binary search through 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations at your target retirement age, hunting for the absolute highest withdrawal rate that still maintains a ≥95% success rate (portfolio > $0) until your Target Final Year.

How to interpret it: A higher SWR (e.g. 4-5%) means you can pull more money out each year relative to your balance, usually implying high confidence. The chart below graphs these projected withdrawal amounts mapping to the "5th percentile" safety line.

The Retirement Score represents your overall probability of success based on your current trajectory and settings.

How we calculate it: We project your portfolio out to your Target Final Year across 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. The score is exactly the percentage of those simulations where your portfolio survives (stays above $0) until your Target Final Year.

How to interpret it: Aim for a score of 95% or higher (🟢 Excellent) to be completely "FIRE ready". If your score is lower, consider manually adjusting your retirement age, spending, or savings rate.

Your FIRE Date is the earliest estimated age and year you can safely retire while maintaining your desired lifestyle.

How we calculate it: We iteratively simulate retiring at every age between now and your Target Final Year. Your FIRE date is the youngest potential age that still results in a mathematically-safe ≥95% success rate (portfolio > $0 until your Target Final Year).

How to interpret it: This is a dynamic target that adjusts to your settings. If it says "🥶 No FIRE Date", your current savings and planned expenses are incompatible with early retirement.

Anticipated Spend is exactly the value you input in your Simulation Settings representing how much you plan to withdraw each year for living expenses post-retirement.

How we calculate it: This is a passthrough of your manual "Annual Spending ($)" configuration. Underneath it, your Historical Spend is automatically calculated by summing your last 12 months of living expenses in Monarch.

Target Safe Spend: If your Anticipated Spend is too high to achieve your target retirement age, the engine will automatically calculate the maximum "Target Safe Spend" you can afford and display the required lifestyle cut.

How to interpret it: This card exists so you can perform a quick reality check! If your Anticipated Spend is 40k but your Historical Spend is 90k, your goals may need adjusting. Ensure your simulation represents what you actually plan to spend.